In the real estate market 2020 in Marbella ¿Are curves coming?
Home sales in Marbella and its surroundings will fall by 30% but a “speedy” recovery is expected
Foreign purchases, which support the luxury segment, will not stabilize until 2021 or 2022 – Exit prices could adjust between 5% and 10%, depending on the area – They highlight that the Costa del Sol is a “solid” destination and sure”
The sales volume of homes in Marbella and its surroundings in Estepona and Benahavís, are one of the epicenters of the Malaga real estate market, will suffer a decrease of between 25% and 30% this year, approaching the levels of 2012-2013 ( the worst moment of the economic crisis at a national level), mainly due to the fact that 80% of its significant luxury segment (with houses of more than 750,000 euros) is made up of foreigners from the United Kingdom and northern Europe.
The confinement caused by the coronavirus health crisis has slowed down the real estate market, but the number of inquiries and activity, together with other data from the sector, allow us to venture “a speedy recovery for a year or two from now.”
The level of inquiries from potential clients barely fell 2% in the month of May compared to last year, and we think that “there is great motivation that we had not observed before, as a direct result of the confinement.” After weeks of confinement, there is now an increased interest in homes with gardens, swimming pools and large terraces. We think that second residences become first residences over the years, “and this trend will be accelerated with the increase in teleworking.”
We are convinced that many tourists, potential clients and owners from Europe, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as from several owners of the Coast, have already made other plans for their summer holidays due to the fact that in April the Government announced the possibility of that the Spanish borders remain closed (and although he later said that foreign tourism may come from July 1). Therefore, we estimate that the foreign real estate market will gradually return in the coming months and that the recovery will occur in 2021.
The local buyers market in Marbella and the rest of Spain will be much more present in the coming months. Marbella has a census population of 150,000 inhabitants, to which must be added at least another 100,000 inhabitants to count the “floating” or non-registered residents who live in the city in the autumn and winter months.
On a positive note, it is underlined that, unlike what happened in 2008 with the outbreak of the economic crisis, the real estate market has not remained completely stopped with the coronavirus and there have been numerous inquiries, purchase and sale operations. “For the first time in the history of Marbella, operations have been closed through virtual visits. Thus, the future prospects are optimistic regarding the remainder of the year and especially for 2021, as international tourism gradually returns. There is absolute confidence that we will have a healthy real estate market again in the medium term, “he details.
Homeowners with a high interest in selling over the next year may have to adjust their starting prices. Likewise, it is also feasible that some properties do not require any type of adjustment to achieve their sale.
And it is that, due to the characteristics of the Marbella market (focused on luxury and with well-off owners and without the urgency of sale), potential buyers must be prepared to see many sellers reject offers on the downside. It can also happen, it will also be the case of owners who prefer to wait for better times renting their properties for a long period until the market for sale recovers.
The reasons that lead buyers to look for a property in Marbella remain the same: the climate and the quality of life and the good transport connections with the rest of the world.